Because China is pursuing open-weight, open-training-data AI models while the US focuses on closed models, most of the world (particularly Belt-and-Road-aligned countries) will end up using Chinese AI models rather than American ones.
“That means that the majority of the world, think of it as the belt and road initiative, are going to use Chinese models and not American models.”
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Explanation
Chinese open-weight models (DeepSeek and others) have gained substantial global adoption, especially in emerging markets, but no source confirms 'the majority of the world' now runs on Chinese rather than American AI models.
Eric Schmidt
Right
attribution: medium
00:16:23
techconflict
Humanoid robots (like Optimus) will not become a significant factor in warfare for a long time; instead, near-term military robotics gains will come from fast air-based, underwater, and hypersonic mobility systems.
“It's going to be a long time before humanoid robots... Be a very long time before we see that. Uh what you're going to see is very very fast mobility solutions, right? airly airbased solutions and also hypersonics.”
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Explanation
Consistent with current trends: near-term military robotics gains through 2025-2026 have come primarily from drones, air, and maritime autonomous systems (as seen extensively in Ukraine), while humanoid robots remain far from battlefield-ready.
Savant-level AI superintelligence (domain-specific genius-level capability, e.g. a 'physics savant' or 'math savant') will arrive in roughly six to seven years, not the three years some in Silicon Valley predict.
“I don't agree with the three years but I do agree that it'll be maybe six or seven years.”
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Explanation
The predicted 6-7 year window hasn't elapsed and no savant-level domain-specific AI superintelligence has been demonstrated yet.
AI systems achieving recursive self-improvement (a key milestone toward AGI) are roughly 5 to 10 years away.
“I've funded a number of startups which claim to be close to it, but of course these are startups and you never know, which tells me it's 5 10 years cutting numbers.”
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Explanation
The predicted 5-10 year window hasn't elapsed and no AI system has demonstrated recursive self-improvement.