ALL INPredictions

Graham Allison on the Global Realignment: Iran, China, Israel, Greenland

Mon, 09 Mar 2026 20:42:00 +0000

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Graham Allison Wrong 00:10:19 politicsgeopolitics

Trump will find a way to declare the Iran war over before his China trip around March 29, 2026.

“If you talk about three or four weeks, we're we'll already he'll be in China March 29th. So my inclination, again, if we were just doing a prediction markets, is that he's going to find a way to declare this over before then, cuz he's needs a little time to get his mind set on that.” View on YouTube
Explanation

Trump did not declare the Iran war over before his China trip. Instead, the trip itself was delayed by about seven weeks specifically because of the ongoing conflict (from late March to May 14-15), and by the time Trump landed in China the war still had not been resolved - reporting described him returning with 'no grand bargain' and no breakthrough on Iran.

Graham Allison Too Early 00:25:46 geopoliticspolitics

The likelihood of a Chinese attack on Taiwan in 2026 or 2027, absent a major provocation, is very low - around 5%.

“So, Taiwan, number one, I think the likelihood of an attack on Taiwan this year or next year or even in the '28, but let me just do '26 and '27, absent some major provocation by Taiwan or some other third incident is very low. I'd put it at about where the where the prediction markets are, 5% or something low.” View on YouTube
Explanation

As of this validation, no Chinese attack on Taiwan has occurred, consistent with Allison's low-probability estimate, and this is corroborated by the US intelligence community's 2026 Annual Threat Assessment (China not currently planning a 2027 invasion) and prediction markets (Polymarket implying roughly 4% probability of invasion by end of 2026). However, Allison's stated window runs through 2027, which has not yet elapsed, so this cannot be fully evaluated yet.