Fri, 09 Jan 2026 00:50:00 +0000
Annual US tariff revenue, currently around $500 billion a year, will grow over time to a trillion dollars a year.
“And then you have the tariffs are 500 billion a year now. And they will grow over time to a trillion a year.” View on YouTube
Actual tariff revenue was far below the claimed $500 billion/year baseline: FY2026 net tariff receipts were about $163 billion after Supreme Court-ordered refunds, nowhere near a trillion-dollar trajectory.
Over the next year, the federal government will launch a major crackdown on fraud (estimated at roughly a trillion dollars a year in improper payments) by cross-referencing agencies like HHS and Commerce.
“The next year you're going to see this government attack fraud. And the fraud is probably a trillion dollars a year of people who just have figured out how to rip off the system.” View on YouTube
No aggregate government report confirming or denying a roughly trillion-dollar-a-year fraud crackdown was found.
US Q4 GDP growth will come in around 2.5%, roughly a point and a half lower than it otherwise would be, due to the accounting effect of furloughed government workers during the shutdown.
“So our fourth quarter GDP will be a point and a half lower than it otherwise would be for this oddity... We have a 3.8 and then 4.3. We'll probably be like 2 and 1/2.” View on YouTube
Actual Q4 2025 GDP growth came in at 0.5% (revised down from an initial 0.7%), far below the predicted 2.5%.
US quarterly GDP growth will reach 5% as early as the first quarter of 2026.
“You're going to see fives fives in the greatest economy in the world. You're going to see fives... But you're going to see fives like as in early in 26.” View on YouTube
Actual Q1 2026 GDP growth was 2.0-2.1% (BEA advance/third estimates), far below the predicted 5%.
If the Federal Reserve gets a new chair who cuts interest rates, US GDP growth will reach 6%.
“I need a new Fed chair who cuts rates. And if they cut rates, sixes. You'll see sixes.” View on YouTube
GDP growth stayed around 2% in Q1 2026 regardless of Fed leadership changes, nowhere near the predicted 6%.