Mon, 29 Sep 2025 02:55:00 +0000
Eli Lilly will launch its oral GLP-1 pill format next year (2026).
“This going to be a pill format. Yeah, that's ours. That's coming next year.” View on YouTube
Confirmed: Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 pill orforglipron (approved as Foundayo) launched in 2026, matching the 'next year' prediction made from this September 2025 episode.
GLP-1 drug prices will decline by roughly 5% or more per year going forward, as guided to investors.
“We've told the street expect singledigit deflation in this category over time. 5% a year it goes down uh or more.” View on YouTube
GLP-1 prices have been trending down (e.g., new sub-$150/month price points), but no independent source confirms a precise sustained ~5%-per-year decline rate.
Sometime in the 2030s, Eli Lilly's Mounjaro will lose patent protection and its revenue will decline to zero as generic/biosimilar competition enters.
“Everything we make goes to zero because of the patent system. So in 2030 something Mjaro will go to zero.” View on YouTube
The predicted 2030s patent-cliff window for Mounjaro hasn't arrived.
Within the next 6 months (from September 2025), Eli Lilly will announce four additional US manufacturing plants, on top of the six already under construction.
“We're currently constructing six plants. We're going to announce four more in the next 6 months.” View on YouTube
Eli Lilly announced multiple new US manufacturing plants in the months following this prediction, including a $6B Alabama facility and a $6.5B Houston, Texas facility, consistent with the pace of expansion predicted.
Within a few months (from September 2025), Novo Nordisk will release results from a dementia-risk study of its GLP-1 drug; the results will likely trend in a positive direction but probably will not reach statistical significance.
“Our competitor Nova is going to read out a study in a few months on dementia risk. It probably won't be positive. That's my guess. But it will probably be in the right direction.” View on YouTube
Confirmed closely: Novo Nordisk's Evoke/Evoke+ Alzheimer's trials, reported in November 2025, failed to meet their primary clinical endpoints (not positive), while still showing a modest ~10% reduction in a key pathology biomarker (p-tau181), a 'right direction' signal too small to matter clinically, matching Ricks's specific guess almost exactly.
If current trials succeed, Eli Lilly will bring a new GLP-1-based drug targeting bipolar disorder and major depressive disorder to market within three to four years (by roughly 2028-2029).
“So we are now right now starting studies in bipolar disorder and major depressive disorder along with these addictive hedonic pathways... so we'll get that drug in three or four years if it works.” View on YouTube
The predicted 3-4 year window (through roughly 2028-2029) hasn't elapsed.