Sun, 25 May 2025 07:09:00 +0000
By 2035, under the reconciliation bill's CBO projections, total US federal debt will reach approximately $62-63 trillion, higher than the roughly $59 trillion baseline estimate.
“So it's not going to be 59 trillion. It's going to be more like 62, 63 trillion.” View on YouTube
The predicted 2035 debt level is far in the future.
Closing the carried interest tax loophole will not happen in this reconciliation bill process.
“So that's kind of where we at on that which is sort of like at an impasse. My guess is just not going to happen, right?” View on YouTube
Confirmed: the carried interest tax loophole was not touched in the 2025 reconciliation bill (One Big Beautiful Bill Act), despite earlier stated interest from the administration in reforming it.
Within the next few weeks (from late May 2025), President Trump will become focused on the federal spending/deficit details of the reconciliation bill, an issue that had not yet reached his attention.
“I just think they are overwhelmed. I mean, you see all the activity and this just hasn't hit his radar yet. It's going to hit his radar here this next the next few weeks.” View on YouTube
An unverifiable claim about President Trump's personal attention shifting to spending details within a few weeks; no clear public confirmation either way.
Rising credit default swap costs on private industry will be followed by a repricing of risk on US government debt, with private-sector credit stress materializing first before sovereign risk repricing.
“Through the course of this year we've seen the cost of that insurance ramp... we're back to almost near highs. And it is the market signaling that first we'll go private industry and then the second will be the repricing of the risk for the US government.” View on YouTube
Too vaguely stated (no specific metric or date) to verify cleanly against CDS market data.
If current emergency-level federal deficit spending continues as the new normal, the US dollar will lose significant purchasing power such that within 10 years (by approximately 2035) a dollar will be worth around 30 cents in today's terms.
“That same level of decline in value of a dollar... will continue and it will only accelerate. And I think the worry is that in 10 years, you know, a dollar is worth 30 cents.” View on YouTube
The predicted ten-year (roughly 2035) dollar-devaluation horizon has not yet elapsed.