The All-In podcast group (Chamath and co-hosts) will host a poker event in Las Vegas during the Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix in late November 2025, launching their own poker tournaments.
“We will do a better version. By the way, of the WSOP to announce this. We will be doing an event during the F1 in Las Vegas where we will be launching our poker tournaments... Let us know late November, guys. Book it.”
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Explanation
There is not enough clear public information confirming whether All-In hosted a poker event during the November 2025 Las Vegas F1 weekend.
If the discussed House tax bill (the Smith/Crapo compromise) is enacted substantially as proposed, it will not materially reduce the U.S. annual federal deficit, and the deficit will rise to roughly $2.5 trillion per year on a sustained basis in subsequent years.
“The bill ultimately yields no real change in the annual deficit. The annual deficit could climb to $2.5 trillion, being added to the federal debt load every single year going forward.”
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Explanation
The federal deficit has remained large in the years following the 2025 tax legislation, though the exact $2.5 trillion figure is not precisely confirmed.
Under the described House tax bill and current fiscal trajectory, the U.S. federal budget deficit will rise to approximately $2.5 trillion per year and remain around that level annually for the foreseeable future (multiple consecutive years after the bill’s enactment).
“The bill ultimately yields no real change in the annual deficit. The annual deficit could climb to $2.5 trillion, being added to the federal debt load every single year going forward.”
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Explanation
The federal deficit has stayed elevated in the range discussed, though sustained multi-year confirmation at precisely $2.5 trillion is not clearly documented.
Ben Shapiro
Too Early
attribution: medium
00:57:33
economy
Within approximately 5–10 years from the time of this conversation, the United States will be forced into one of two macroeconomic outcomes—either a period of very high inflation that significantly erodes the value of the dollar, or the adoption of large-scale austerity measures to cut government spending—with no materially different third path available.
“So when people ask me what's going to happen, I mean, the answer is we're going to either wildly inflate our currency or we're going to go into massive austerity measures. You know, 5 to 10 years from now, there's not going to be a third choice.”
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Explanation
This 5-10 year forecast about forced inflation or austerity has not yet fully played out.
If global investors begin to meaningfully question the U.S. government’s willingness or ability to fully honor its Treasury obligations over a 30‑year horizon, yields on 30‑year U.S. Treasuries will rise by roughly 1–2 percentage points (into the 6–7% range), which will in turn increase federal interest costs and annual deficits in a self‑reinforcing "debt spiral."
“Because what happens is people stop owning treasuries when they start to question whether or not, 30 years from now, the US government is going to meet its debt obligations. Even the smallest marginal question of that drives interest rates up 1% 2%. Suddenly, your 30 year treasury yields at 6% 7%, and then your interest rates climb and then your deficit spending climbs. And that's how it becomes a spiral.”
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Explanation
Long-term Treasury yields have shown periodic upward pressure amid fiscal sustainability concerns, but a clear self-reinforcing 'debt spiral' with 30-year yields sustained at 6-7% has not clearly materialized.
If Democrats win back national power in the next U.S. federal election cycle (i.e., regain control of the presidency and/or Congress), they will substantially halt or block large‑scale monetization of federal assets (such as expanded drilling and land/royalty programs), preventing that policy from continuing in a sustained way.
“First of all, political cycles are going to affect this. If the Democrats come back into power in this next election cycle, they'll put a blockade on this stuff. It's not going to be persistent.”
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Explanation
This prediction is conditional on Democrats regaining national power in the next election cycle, which has not yet occurred.
Even if the U.S. aggressively monetizes federal assets (land leases, resource extraction, etc.), the resulting new revenue streams will not scale up fast enough over roughly the next 10–15 years to fully offset or close the projected annual federal budget deficits.
“But I'm not sure that the ramp up is going to be fast enough to make up for the deficit.”
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Explanation
This is a long-run (10-15 year) forecast about federal asset monetization revenue that has not had time to play out.
Ben Shapiro
Too Early
attribution: medium
01:30:49
healtheconomy
If U.S. policy aggressively suppresses brand‑name drug prices via international reference pricing or "most favored nation" style rules that significantly reduce pharmaceutical profit margins, private‑sector pharmaceutical R&D investment in the United States will decline materially over subsequent years, impairing the domestic drug development pipeline.
“If you're talking about just artificially lowering prices by basically clocking pharma, I mean, the reality is, if you want to kill R&D, this is a great way to kill R&D”
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Explanation
The described most-favored-nation drug pricing policy's long-term effect on pharmaceutical R&D investment has not yet had enough time to be clearly measured.