Safety drivers will be removed from Uber's autonomous vehicle partner fleets starting this year and especially into next year, with a significant number of driverless cars on the road by then.
“the safety drivers will come out this year and especially going into next year. We're going to have significant number of cars on the road.”
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Explanation
Waymo removed safety drivers across multiple markets (Miami, and subsequently Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Orlando) in 2026, with a significant scale-up of fully driverless vehicles on the road, matching the prediction.
Sidewalk delivery robots and drone delivery combined will be able to cover more than 50% of Uber's addressable delivery market (TAM).
“Those two together we think can cover 50 plus% of our delivery uh TAM so to speak.”
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Explanation
No public data found confirming sidewalk/drone delivery's share of Uber's delivery TAM.
Within 10 years, autonomous vehicle fleets will become financialized similarly to real estate, with financial-only owners (akin to REITs) owning large car fleets that operate on Uber's and other networks, rather than operators like Hertz owning and running them directly.
“I think 10 years down the line you know there are these things called REITs real estate investment trusts. You're going to have fleets. You're going to have financial owners that own big fleets of cars that are on our network, maybe on other networks.”
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Explanation
The predicted ten-year financialization horizon has not yet elapsed.
The share of global rides that are ride-sharing (currently 1-2%) will rise to around 20% as autonomous vehicles scale.
“1% of rides globally are ride sharing approximately a little more, but it's between 1 and 2%. It's a very low number. It's clear it's going to go to 20 with autonomy.”
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Explanation
No specific near-term checkpoint was given for the predicted rise to a 20% ride-sharing share.
For the next 5-7 years, Uber's growth will outpace autonomous vehicle rollout so robot cars will not displace human drivers and delivery workers (Uber will keep adding more of both); however, in 10-15 years, driver job displacement from autonomous vehicles will become a real societal issue.
“I think for us at least for the next 5 years uh the number of robot cars coming onto the platform are not going to be displacing people because the platform is just growing so quickly... So I think for the next 5 to seven years we're we're going to have more human drivers and delivery people just because we're going so quickly. But I think you know 10 to 15 years from now this is going to be a real issue.”
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Explanation
The predicted five-to-seven-year (no-displacement) and ten-to-fifteen-year (real issue) horizons have not yet elapsed.