The current AI capex investment boom will hand off to a broad productivity boom sometime in 2026.
“in my perfect world, which never happens, uh, we would go through this big capex boom and then sometime in 26, the capex boom would hand off to a productivity boom.”
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Explanation
AI capital expenditure remained enormous through 2026 with early signs of productivity gains in specific sectors, but a broad economy-wide productivity boom handoff had not been clearly confirmed by mid-2026.
The Federal Reserve will deliver one to two interest rate cuts within the year.
“we're we're seeing that we could see one two rate cuts this year”
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Explanation
The Fed delivered three 25bp cuts in 2025 (September, October, December), exceeding the predicted 1-2 cuts within the year.
The US will collect at least $300 billion in tariff revenue over the next 12 months.
“I think minimum on a forward 12-month basis, we're going to take in at least $300 billion in tariff income.”
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Explanation
US tariff revenue rose sharply after the 2025 tariff hikes, running at an annualized pace in the low hundreds of billions, but whether a full 300 billion dollars was collected within the specific 12-month window is not clearly confirmed.
Natural gas will be the dominant source of new US electricity generation going forward, with solar, nuclear, hydro and geothermal playing supporting roles.
“What's going to be the main source of new electricity in the United States by far and away? Natural gas just because it's cheapest, fast, it's reliable and dependable. Solar is going to play a role. Nuclear's going to play a role. Hydro, geothermal, stop closing coal, lots of pieces, but it's dominantly going to be natural gas.”
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Explanation
Natural gas remained the largest source of new US electricity generation capacity additions through 2025-2026, driven heavily by AI data center demand.
Three next-generation Gen 4 nuclear reactors will go critical at Idaho National Lab by next summer (2026).
“Nuclear is the single biggest issue I work on. We will have three next generation Gen 4 reactors critical in Idaho National Lab next summer.”
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Explanation
No three Generation IV nuclear reactors had gone critical at Idaho National Laboratory by summer 2026; advanced reactor demonstration projects there remained in earlier construction and licensing stages.
Chris Wright
Too Early
attribution: medium
00:29:23
scienceeconomy
Small modular nuclear reactors will become free-market economically viable (without government support) in roughly 10 years.
“How far away are we till it's free market running? uh probably 10 years 10 years 10 years because it's just a learning curve with the the small modular reactors you got to build up the supply chain you got to build up and build them in volume the cost can come down dramatically”
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Explanation
Small modular reactors continued to attract major investment and pilot projects through 2025-2026, but full free-market viability without subsidy is a roughly 10-year-out claim that cannot yet be evaluated.
The Department of Energy will announce the first four AI-factory data center sites (from its 16 offered federal locations) the day after this taping, with more announcements to follow.
“We got 300 responses. We we will announce tomorrow the first four of those sites that will be developed and then you'll hear many more coming behind that.”
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Explanation
No specific, verifiable record of the Department of Energy announcing exactly four AI-factory data center sites the day after this taping was found.
Doug Burgum
Partly Right
attribution: medium
00:20:50
governmenteconomy
The administration will block the planned closure of roughly 100 gigawatts of US power plants through 2030, while adding more than 100 gigawatts of new power generation over the next five to seven years.
“There's plans between now and 2030 to close to close a 100 gigawatts of power plants. 100 gigawatts. Um and we're stopping most all that... If we need to add a hundred after the meetings they had this morning, I think it's more than 100 gigawatts in the next five or seven years.”
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Explanation
The Trump administration pursued policies to slow planned power-plant retirements and expand generation capacity, but hitting the specific targets remains too early to confirm at scale.
Doug Burgum
Partly Right
attribution: medium
00:33:55
economy
The AI/energy infrastructure buildout will trigger an explosion of trade jobs paying up to roughly $150,000 a year (starting around $120,000 in North Dakota), letting workers skip college.
“we're going to have an explosion in in jobs in the trades. I mean, you're going to be able to skip college, go directly into develop a trade, you know, make 150. Yeah. 150 grand, 120 to start in my home state.”
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Explanation
Demand and wages for skilled trades workers tied to data center and energy buildout grew notably through 2025-2026, with some specialized roles reaching high five- and six-figure pay, but a broad 'explosion' of jobs paying up to 150K was not comprehensively confirmed.
On August 1st, any unresolved trade deals will have their tariff rates snap up from the current 10% to higher negotiated levels.
“Okay. So on August 1st whatever hasn't been settled will be settled and the tariffs go into effect. Right. So all this 10%, they'll all just pop up to some higher number.”
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Explanation
The Trump administration did implement an August 1, 2025 deadline mechanism under which countries without finalized trade deals faced tariff rates snapping up from the baseline level.
A deal will be finalized in which American owners buy TikTok and it moves onto American technology infrastructure.
“I think that deal will happen and uh America will buy Tik Tok because the alternative is just shuts it off and that just seems illogical.”
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Explanation
A deal restructuring TikTok's US operations under majority American ownership (the Oracle-led consortium) was finalized in January 2026, confirming the prediction.