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Aaron Levie

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Small sample size (1 prediction): treat this accuracy figure as anecdotal, not statistically meaningful.

Predictions

DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie Partly Right Fri, 20 Dec 2024 22:00:00 +0000 · 01:05:57

As AI model markets mature, the per-token price for AI inference will converge to roughly the underlying compute cost plus only about a 10–20% margin, leaving little additional economic rent for model providers on raw token usage.

“what we should expect is that the price of a token in AI land, you know, basically will be whatever the price of running the computers are. And maybe with like a, you know, plus ten, 20% margin.”
Explanation

AI inference token pricing has fallen dramatically toward compute cost through 2025-2026 amid intense competition, broadly consistent with the prediction, though provider margins vary and haven't uniformly converged to just 10-20%.