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Antonio Garcia Martinez

Guest · 1 tracked prediction · 100.0% accuracy

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1 resolved · 1 total
Right 1 (100.0%)
Wrong 0

Small sample size (1 prediction): treat this accuracy figure as anecdotal, not statistically meaningful.

Predictions

#AIS: Antonio Garcia Martinez & Glenn Greenwald debate Ukraine, moderated by David Sacks Right Wed, 25 May 2022 04:01:25 +0000 · 00:05:00

Antonio Garcia Martinez predicts Russia will not win the war in Ukraine, arguing it is nearly impossible for roughly 200,000 Russian soldiers to control a country the size of Texas with 40 million people who are fiercely resisting.

“but i was starting to think you know i i don't see how the russians win this like this just seems impossible ukraine is the size of texas it has a population of 40 million people roughly the size i imagine the russians showing up with 200 000 soldiers and trying to control california it's going to be very difficult to do” View on YouTube
Explanation

As of mid-2026 Russia has not won the war. It controls roughly 18-20% of Ukraine's territory (Crimea plus parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson), with only slow, incremental gains after more than four years of fighting and roughly a million Russian casualties, not the swift subjugation of the whole country the prediction argued against.