This is an early, in-progress rewrite: predictions are automatically extracted and validated by LLMs, so there may be inaccuracies, and much of the archive is still unvalidated (shown as "Unvalidated").
The US economy will go through a rough one-to-two-year period of recession/retooling starting mid-2022, but because consumers are not over-leveraged the economy should come out okay afterward.
“It's going to be a rough year or two. Uh hang on. It will be a rough year or two, but the consumers are pretty good shape.”
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Explanation
The U.S. economy went through a rough stretch of high inflation and aggressive Fed rate hikes in 2022-2023 but avoided a formally declared recession, with consumer balance sheets remaining relatively healthy, consistent with the prediction.
After the April 20, 2023 Starship test, SpaceX will require at least 2–3 months to rebuild the pad and prepare another Starship/Super Heavy vehicle for the next test launch, with the earliest plausible next launch attempt no sooner than late June to late July 2023.
“it'll take at least 2 or 3 months, 2 or 3 months to really get the pad rebuilt and get another vehicle back on for testing. Uh, maybe longer.”
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Explanation
SpaceX took considerably longer than 2-3 months to relaunch after the April 2023 Starship test; the next Starship flight (IFT-2) did not occur until November 2023, about seven months later.