From roughly the mid‑2020s onward, Iran’s strategy of supporting destabilizing Islamist jihadist proxies in the region is entering its ‘last gasp’: over the coming years, its influence and ability to destabilize the Middle East will decline, while a more collaborative, economically integrated ‘new Middle East’ will continue to emerge and strengthen.
“So the way I kind of view this period right now is that the Middle East today is way stronger than it's been in the past. And this is what I would say, the last gasp of Iran and those who have pushed for destabilization and kind of this whole, um, you know, Islamist jihadist project at the expense of kind of a collaborative, uh, Middle East, which which would then will create a lot of opportunity for the next generation to, to really thrive.”
Explanation
Iran's regional proxy network was significantly degraded through 2024-2025, with Hezbollah's leadership largely eliminated by Israel and Iran itself directly struck, broadly supporting the 'last gasp' characterization of its destabilization strategy.
Israeli security services (including Mossad) will eventually locate and kill or capture the top leadership of Hamas responsible for the October 7, 2023 attacks; the question is timing and method, not whether it will happen.
“there obviously are some bad leaders at the top who are culpable who, um, who, who are military targets. And I imagine that it's really, you know, knowing the capabilities of Israel and the Mossad. It's just a matter of, you know, when and how, as opposed to anything else.”
Explanation
Israel did track down and kill top Hamas leadership responsible for October 7, including Yahya Sinwar (October 2024), Ismail Haniyeh (July 2024), and Mohammed Deif (2024).
Israel’s GDP will experience a significant decline in Q4 2023 as a result of the Gaza war, although historically the Israeli economy rebounds quickly afterward unless the conflict turns into a prolonged war, in which case economic damage will be larger and more sustained.
“I think GDP will take a big hit there in Q4. But obviously, you know, in Israel they do have a history of coming back right away. But if this is a prolonged war effort, there could be big hits.”
Explanation
Israel's GDP contracted sharply in Q4 2023 due to the war (an annualized decline of roughly 19-20%), consistent with the prediction, and rebounded in subsequent quarters.
Israel’s GDP will experience a substantial decline in Q4 2023 as a result of the war in Gaza, large enough to be characterized as a "big hit" relative to prior quarters/trend.
“What could happen if they go to war and it's a prolonged war, is that economy can go off track. I think GDP will take a big hit there in Q4.”
Explanation
Israel's GDP took a substantial hit in Q4 2023 as the war escalated, matching the prediction.
From late 2023 onward, the Russia–Ukraine war will remain broadly militarily static, with no major changes to front lines or decisive battlefield breakthroughs by either side in the near term.
“it does seem like it's kind of reached a point where it's not much is going to change militarily.”
Explanation
The Russia-Ukraine front lines remained largely static through most of 2024 in the near term following this prediction, without a decisive breakthrough by either side.