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John Martinis

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Small sample size (1 prediction): treat this accuracy figure as anecdotal, not statistically meaningful.

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Nobel Prize in Physics Winner: John Martinis on the State of Quantum Too Early Mon, 27 Oct 2025 17:16:00 +0000 · 00:37:27

Within about 8-10 years of this interview (by roughly 2033-2035), his company (and the broader field) will scale superconducting quantum computers to be large and reliable enough (heading toward million-qubit-class, error-corrected systems) to solve genuinely hard, useful problems.

“what we want to do and it's a timeline of many other groups is to do something in let's say in the next 8 10 years something like that... in a let's say 10-year time scale something like that” View on YouTube
Explanation

This is an 8-10 year forecast (to roughly 2033-2035) made in October 2025 for reaching large-scale, useful quantum computing. As of August 2026 the field remains at roughly the hundred-qubit scale Martinis described, well short of the million-qubit-class systems he outlined, and the timeframe has not elapsed, so this cannot be evaluated yet.