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Nassim Taleb

Guest · 1 tracked prediction · 100.0% accuracy

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1 resolved · 1 total
Right 1 (100.0%)
Wrong 0

Small sample size (1 prediction): treat this accuracy figure as anecdotal, not statistically meaningful.

Predictions

E157: Epic legal win, OpenAI licensing deals, FCC targets Elon, Alex Jones reinstated & more Right Sat, 16 Dec 2023 00:37:00 +0000 · 01:25:36

In the Russia–Ukraine war, Russia will maintain enough military and economic staying power that the conflict will eventually end in some form of negotiated settlement rather than a decisive Ukrainian victory or regime collapse in Moscow.

“Russia is not as weak as it seemed. It has staying power. This means a settlement is likely outcome anyway.” View on YouTube
Explanation

Rather than a decisive Ukrainian victory or Russian regime collapse, the Russia-Ukraine war moved toward a negotiated settlement process, particularly after the Trump administration pushed peace negotiations in 2025, consistent with the prediction.