In late 2023 and throughout 2024, early- and mid‑stage startups will experience a "mass extinction event"—a wave of failures and shutdowns that, in severity for startups, will exceed the impact they experienced during the 2008 financial crisis.
“There is a mass extinction event coming for early and mid-stage companies late 23 and 24. Make the 2008 financial crisis look quaint for startups.”
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Explanation
While notable startup failures occurred in 2023-2024, the overall wave was not clearly documented as exceeding the severity of the 2008 financial crisis for startups broadly.
Of the roughly 5,000 seed (raising $2.5–5M) and Series A/B companies funded in the four years prior to this episode (circa 2019–2022), approximately 50% will ultimately go out of business, with most of these failures occurring as the late‑2023 to 2024 funding crunch unfolds.
“We estimate 50% will go out of business. Loss ratios in the last seven years have been artificially low due to excess capital.”
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Explanation
There is no comprehensive, verifiable data confirming that exactly around 50% of the referenced 2019-2022 seed and Series A/B cohort has gone out of business.
U.S. economic growth will slow from roughly 2.5% to about 1.5% annualized in the second half of the year, and within roughly the following year there will be a significant correction in risk assets after the best gains of the cycle have already occurred.
“We think growth is going to slow to 1.5% from 2.5% in the second half. And so I'm actually pretty negative for the first time in a while. And it may only last a year or so. But it's definitely I think the best gains have been had and wouldn't surprise me to see a significant correction.”
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Explanation
US GDP growth did moderate somewhat through 2025 amid tariff-related uncertainty, and markets saw notable volatility (the April 2025 tariff-driven selloff), though a clean slowdown to exactly 1.5% and a full one-year 'significant correction' is difficult to confirm precisely.