Palmer Luckey
Guest · 2 tracked predictions · 100.0% accuracy
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Small sample size (2 predictions): treat this accuracy figure as anecdotal, not statistically meaningful.
Current market conditions (as of mid-2022) suggest many startup founders will lose their companies over the next year or so.
“the market conditions suggest they're going to be a lot of founders hopefully none of the people in this room losing their startups over the next year or so”
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Explanation
The predicted 2022-2023 funding winter did materialize: startup shutdowns tracked by Carta jumped from 467 in 2022 to 770 in 2023 (a record), global VC funding fell 38% year-over-year to $285B in 2023, and roughly 3,200 startups representing $27.2B in prior funding folded.
VR technology will be able to perfectly simulate low-dynamic-range experiences (e.g., sitting in a brightly-lit fluorescent conference room) within 10 years (by roughly 2032).
“being able to perfectly simulate the experience of being in a brightly lit fluorescent fluorescent conference room that's going to happen within 10 years like the resolution will be there the weight will be there you'll be able to perfect seamless experience”
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Explanation
The predicted 10-year window runs through roughly 2032 and hasn't elapsed yet; while VR fidelity has improved substantially, no consumer headset has yet demonstrated a 'perfectly simulate a fluorescent-lit conference room' level of fidelity as of 2026.