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Thomas Laffont

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Predictions

Thomas Laffont: The $4T AI IPO Wave, 2026's Unicorn Economy, and the 10X Paradox Too Early Thu, 04 Jun 2026 18:23:00 +0000 · 00:06:36

OpenAI and Anthropic's combined run-rate revenue will surpass AWS's by the end of 2026 and surpass all of Microsoft's revenue by 2028.

“So what can that look like in the future? Well, this is just based on kind of some assumptions and some forecasts, but you can see that we estimate that only not only is it bigger than Azure, but by the end of the year could be bigger than AWS and potentially bigger than all of Microsoft by 2028.” View on YouTube
Explanation

As of mid-2026, combined Anthropic and OpenAI annualized revenue (estimated around $75-115B depending on accounting methodology) has not yet been directly confirmed as surpassing AWS's revenue, and the 2028-vs-Microsoft comparison window has not elapsed.

Thomas Laffont: The $4T AI IPO Wave, 2026's Unicorn Economy, and the 10X Paradox Too Early Thu, 04 Jun 2026 18:23:00 +0000 · 00:15:06

The AI industry's annual revenue will reach about $300 billion in 2026 and double again to roughly $600 billion in 2027.

“We believe that it's about 140 billion today. It'll be about 300 billion this year and it'll double in 2027.” View on YouTube
Explanation

Estimates of 2026 AI industry revenue vary widely by methodology (from a few hundred billion in direct product/service revenue to over $2 trillion including total AI spending), making Laffont's specific $300B-in-2026-doubling-to-2027 claim hard to confirm or deny cleanly, and the 2027 half of the prediction has not yet elapsed.

IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate Too Early Sat, 21 Jun 2025 02:53:00 +0000 · 01:35:10

Over the next five years, Microsoft’s overall business (revenue and scale) will be larger than today, and its total employee count will also increase, as growth in businesses like Azure more than offsets any AI‑related efficiency layoffs.

“I'm in Thomas camp, where I actually think the Microsoft business will be bigger if anything on on kind of usher alone. And that at the end of the day. Uh, we'll just need more people to support it.” View on YouTube
Explanation

The five-year window for both Microsoft revenue and headcount growth has not elapsed.