ICE Raids, LA Riots, Strong Economic Data, Politicized Fed, Iran War with Tucker Carlson

The upcoming U.S. GDP print (the next quarterly release they are discussing, implied Q2 2025) will come in in the low-to-mid 3% annualized growth range (roughly 3.0–3.5%), and will be meaningfully above the then-current market/consensus expectations.

“I was noticing was that we were going to come in, I said in the low threes. And I think if Atlanta Fed is right, I don't think they are. But I think it's going to be in the low to mid threes. It's going to be meaningfully greater than what people are expecting.”

Under the existing Trump-era tariff regime, U.S. federal receipts will come in approximately $300–$400 billion per year higher than prior forecasts, on an ongoing annual basis, assuming current tariff levels and trade balances persist.

“we are run rating 300 to $400 billion above Forecast in terms of our receipts, meaning the revenues that we will take in. And you get to that number by looking at the last three months of tariffs and forecasting forward, assuming a reasonable balance here... The mathematical reality is that this is actually going to work out much better for us than we anticipated, and it's going to be somewhere in the range of 300 to $400 billion of extra revenue per year.”

If the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 100 basis points within the next 60 days, then within that same 60-day window the U.S. fiscal outlook will be officially reforecast to show roughly $600 billion per year of improvement to the federal balance sheet (about $300 billion in additional annual revenue from tariffs plus about $300 billion in annual interest savings on the debt).

“if we cut by 100 basis points, that's another $300 billion. Now in that case, that's not money that we get in, but it's money we don't have to spend. So if you add these two things together, we are in the next 60 days going to have to reforecast the American balance sheet where this is, or we're actually going to be able to positively forecast an extra 600 billion, 300 billion of incremental revenue and 300 billion of savings.”

Conditional on the U.S. realizing an additional ~$600 billion annual fiscal improvement from tariff revenues and a 100 bps Fed rate cut as described, global risk capital flows will overwhelmingly favor U.S. assets over Japan, Europe, and other markets, producing a pronounced shift of "every" marginal risk dollar into the United States in the period following these changes.

“Jason, if that happens, watch out. What does that mean? Watch out. It means that every single risk dollar is going to run to America. Every single one. Forget Japan, forget Europe. There is no place to put your money except the United States.”

The so‑called "big beautiful bill" (B.B.B.) being debated in mid‑2025 will pass Congress and become law.

“And remember when it passes, and I think it likely will. Um, it's the law”

If the U.S. and its allies enter into a significant war with Iran in the near term, global oil prices will approximately double from their pre‑war level, potentially reaching on the order of $100–$112 per barrel.

“If we go to war. Tucker's right. This totally screws everything up. I mean, you could see oil double, double. What happens to the economy of the world, of world GDP, of everything of inflation. If you have oil at 100 bucks a barrel, $112 a barrel, it's not good.”