ALL INPredictions

John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024

Tue, 01 Oct 2024 19:03:00 +0000

Back to episodes
John Mearsheimer Partly Right 00:03:33 politicsgeopolitics

If Donald Trump is elected president again, he will fail to fundamentally break the foreign-policy "Deep State" / administrative-state establishment during his term, just as he did in his first term.

“he is vowed that if he gets elected this time uh it will be different and he will beat back the Deep State he will pursue a foreign policy that is fundamentally different... and the big question on the table is whether or not you think Trump can beat the Deep State and these two established parties uh and i bet against Trump” View on YouTube
Explanation

Whether Trump "beat the Deep State" in his second term is genuinely contested: his administration pursued aggressive restructuring of the federal bureaucracy (Schedule F, DOGE-driven mass layoffs, State Department reorganization), which supporters call a real dismantling of the administrative state, while critics argue day-to-day foreign policy continuity (alliances, defense posture, agency inertia) persisted much as Mearsheimer predicted. No clean right/wrong verdict is possible.

John Mearsheimer Right 00:50:45 geopolitics

Even if Israel significantly escalates military action in the West Bank, Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia will not militarily intervene, because they lack the capability to do so.

“I think there is virtually no chance of what you described happening which is if the Israelis were to go on a rampage in the West Bank similar what they have done in Gaza that the jordanians would come in or the Egyptians or the Saudis they simply do not have the military capability” View on YouTube
Explanation

Israel significantly escalated West Bank military operations in 2024-2025 (large-scale raids, settlement expansion), yet Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia did not militarily intervene, consistent with Mearsheimer's prediction that they lack the capability/will to do so.

Jeffrey Sachs Too Early 00:48:37 geopolitics

The International Criminal Court (or the ICJ) will formally find that Israel is in violation of the 1948 Genocide Convention.

“the international criminal court uh uh is likely to find or icj is likely to find that Israel is in violation of the 1948 genocide convention which I very much believe it to be in violation” View on YouTube
Explanation

The ICJ genocide case (South Africa v. Israel) remains in early procedural stages as of mid-2026 -- Israel filed its counter-memorial in March 2026, with a rejoinder deadline not until 2029 and no hearing on preliminary objections expected before late 2026/2027. No final ICJ or ICC ruling on the Genocide Convention question has been issued yet.