Launch costs will fall to the roughly $200-300/kg threshold (from about $1,000/kg today) that makes space-based data centers cheaper than terrestrial ones within 2 to 3 years.
“On the current trajectory with Starship in particular, I would expect it the launch cost come down there in 2 to 3 years. Elon might say it's next week, but at least realistically a couple of years.” View on YouTube
The predicted 2-to-3-year window (through roughly 2028-2029) has barely begun; Starship launch costs remain around $820-980/kg as of 2026, well above the $200-300/kg threshold cited.