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Will Marshall

Guest · 2 tracked predictions

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0 resolved · 2 total
Right 0
Wrong 0

Small sample size (2 predictions): treat this accuracy figure as anecdotal, not statistically meaningful.

Predictions

The IPO Comeback: Why Tech Giants Are Finally Going Public | All-In Liquidity IPO Panel Too Early Sat, 06 Jun 2026 16:30:00 +0000 · 00:15:45

Launch costs will fall to the roughly $200-300/kg threshold (from about $1,000/kg today) that makes space-based data centers cheaper than terrestrial ones within 2 to 3 years.

“On the current trajectory with Starship in particular, I would expect it the launch cost come down there in 2 to 3 years. Elon might say it's next week, but at least realistically a couple of years.” View on YouTube
Explanation

The predicted 2-to-3-year window (through roughly 2028-2029) has barely begun; Starship launch costs remain around $820-980/kg as of 2026, well above the $200-300/kg threshold cited.

The IPO Comeback: Why Tech Giants Are Finally Going Public | All-In Liquidity IPO Panel Too Early Sat, 06 Jun 2026 16:30:00 +0000 · 00:17:24

Within 10 years, most computing will be done in space, creating a market worth trillions of dollars that will be bigger than any other space business today.

“It's early days, but I think no question within 10 years most compute will be putting in space, which to give you a sense is a lot of money, like trillions, and will be bigger than any of the other space businesses today.” View on YouTube
Explanation

The predicted 10-year window (through roughly 2036) has barely begun.