Fri, 13 Dec 2024 16:58:00 +0000
Keith Rabois expects that his own active involvement in politics (e.g., taking a political role) will begin roughly a decade after 2024, not sooner.
“At some point, would I like to get involved in politics? Probably, yes, but it's a decade out.”
The predicted roughly-decade timeframe (around 2034) hasn't arrived.
If Google continues progressing on its current quantum computing roadmap, within roughly 3–7 years from 2024 there will exist large‑scale quantum computers capable of running algorithms like Shor’s such that they can, in principle, break essentially all current classical encryption standards.
“One of the things that this highlights is that in a couple of years, theoretically, if Google continues on this track and now they build a large scale qubit computer, they theoretically would be in a position to to start to run some of these quantum algorithms like Shor's algorithm. And so we're now kind of spitting distance or a couple of years. It's not really clear. Is it. Three years, five years, seven years, but a couple years away from having computers that theoretically could crack all encryption standards.”
The predicted 3-7 year window (2027-2031) hasn't elapsed, and no quantum computer capable of breaking classical encryption exists yet.
Based on Willow’s current capabilities, quantum hardware will scale to roughly 4,000 logical qubits (enough to break RSA‑2048) and ~8,000 logical qubits (enough to break SHA‑256 used by Bitcoin) within about 2–5 years from 2024, putting breaking of these schemes by quantum computers on that timeframe.
“So if you think of Willow as essentially like one stable logical qubit equivalent in a chip, we need about 4000 to break RSA 2048, and we need about 8000 to break Sha 256, which is the underlying encryption framework for Bitcoin. So I think you're right. I think we're in the sort of like the endgame. 2 to 5 year shot clock.”
The predicted 2-5 year window (2026-2029) hasn't elapsed; current quantum hardware remains far below the thousands of logical qubits needed.
Quantum computing of the type represented by Google’s Willow chip will not yield true commercial products or applications for at least about 10 years from 2024; until then it should be regarded more as basic research than as near‑term commercial technology.
“Yeah, yeah. So I think first of all, I think there's a long time before this becomes a commercial product or application of any sort. So it's great that they're taking money. But think about it as like almost like Stanford takes money, or the US government funds basic research in some ways. This is at least a decade out kind of thing.”
No major commercial quantum computing product or application has emerged as of 2026, consistent with the prediction so far, but the full ~10-year window (to 2034) hasn't closed.
In the upcoming Trump administration (beginning January 20, 2025), Shein will face significant difficulties in the US market, likely in the form of regulatory, tariff, or trade-related actions that materially impede its operations or growth there.
“Well, she's going to have some real problems in the new administration.”
Shein faced significant new difficulties in the US market under the Trump administration, including the elimination of the de minimis import exemption it had relied on for low-cost shipping.
During the Trump administration starting in January 2025, the US will implement substantial new tariff measures specifically targeting imports from China, beyond those in place as of December 2024.
“So I think you're going to see real tariffs like especially against China”
The Trump administration implemented substantial new tariffs on Chinese imports beginning in 2025, well beyond December 2024 levels.