Keith Rabois predicts tech stock and startup valuations will crash similar to the 2000 dot-com bust, a view he first tweeted in January 2022 and continues to believe.
“well i mean i tweeted in october but uh you know that we were at the height of the market i tweeted last january that we're gonna see 2000 all over again and so privately internally i've been arguing this internally that this is exactly what's going to happen”
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Explanation
The 2022 tech/startup correction was real but far smaller in magnitude than the 2000 dot-com bust: the Nasdaq Composite fell 33.1% in 2022 versus the 78% peak-to-trough collapse from 2000-2002, so it wasn't '2000 all over again' as explicitly predicted.
Keith Rabois predicts more startups will be forced into discount/down valuation rounds as the venture market resets, despite the political difficulty such rounds create with founders and prior investors.
“well some companies are going to have to try the problem is like for example we don't like to do those rounds there's so much brain damage in the politics of that with founders with prior investors”
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Explanation
Confirmed: down/discount valuation rounds became far more common through the 2022-2023 reset, with roughly 20% of startups raising at a lower valuation than before, up from just 5% in 2021.
Keith Rabois predicts Tiger Global will fail to succeed as an early-stage (Series A/B) investor, since that skill set differs greatly from leading growth-stage rounds.
“and if tiger thinks that they're going to be successful series a investors they're in for a very rude awakening i know about five or ten people on the planet that are successful series a investors it is a very different discipline than deploying capital at large”
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Explanation
Tiger Global didn't so much fail publicly at early-stage investing as retreat from it: after the 2021-2022 boom-era strategy of investing across all stages soured, the firm dramatically downsized (from a $12.7B fund to a $2.2B fund, making just 9 new private investments in 2025) and returned to its original higher-conviction, later-stage-leaning approach, an implicit vindication of Rabois's skepticism but not a dramatic public failure at Series A specifically.
Keith Rabois expects that his own active involvement in politics (e.g., taking a political role) will begin roughly a decade after 2024, not sooner.
“At some point, would I like to get involved in politics? Probably, yes, but it's a decade out.”
Explanation
The predicted roughly-decade timeframe (around 2034) hasn't arrived.
Quantum computing of the type represented by Google’s Willow chip will not yield true commercial products or applications for at least about 10 years from 2024; until then it should be regarded more as basic research than as near‑term commercial technology.
“Yeah, yeah. So I think first of all, I think there's a long time before this becomes a commercial product or application of any sort. So it's great that they're taking money. But think about it as like almost like Stanford takes money, or the US government funds basic research in some ways. This is at least a decade out kind of thing.”
Explanation
No major commercial quantum computing product or application has emerged as of 2026, consistent with the prediction so far, but the full ~10-year window (to 2034) hasn't closed.
In the upcoming Trump administration (beginning January 20, 2025), Shein will face significant difficulties in the US market, likely in the form of regulatory, tariff, or trade-related actions that materially impede its operations or growth there.
“Well, she's going to have some real problems in the new administration.”
Explanation
Shein faced significant new difficulties in the US market under the Trump administration, including the elimination of the de minimis import exemption it had relied on for low-cost shipping.
During the Trump administration starting in January 2025, the US will implement substantial new tariff measures specifically targeting imports from China, beyond those in place as of December 2024.
“So I think you're going to see real tariffs like especially against China”
Explanation
The Trump administration implemented substantial new tariffs on Chinese imports beginning in 2025, well beyond December 2024 levels.