Vance predicts the pace of deportations under the Trump administration will increase somewhat going forward, citing new ICE resources from the 'big beautiful bill' and recent court wins.
“So, I expect uh that the pace of deportations will increase a little bit.”
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Explanation
ICE deportations and enforcement activity increased substantially through 2025-2026 under the second Trump administration, matching the prediction.
Vance predicts the U.S. will record its first net negative immigration number in roughly 50 to 60 years for calendar year 2025.
“I think in 2025, we will have the first net negative immigration number in about 50 or 60 years in the United States.”
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Explanation
Confirmed: the Brookings Institution found net migration was negative in 2025 (between -10,000 and -295,000), the first negative reading in at least 50 years, matching Vance's specific prediction.
The US federal deficit will fall toward roughly 3% of GDP under the Trump administration's fiscal path.
“What you can do is you can cut smartly but also grow and get the economy in a position where that fiscal deficit is closer to 3% of GDP. Now yes we got to make more progress but if you look at what Scott has done at the Treasury I think that we are on pace to get to a point where we can get the fiscal deficit to a sustainable level”
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Explanation
No deadline was given; the administration's term runs to January 2029, so the deficit path can only be judged later.
Vance predicts that if elected in 2024, Trump will again be a successful president, as Vance judges he was in his first term.
“of course I'm running as his running mate I think he'll do it again”
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Explanation
Whether the second Trump term is judged 'successful' is a subjective, ongoing assessment that can't be conclusively resolved this early in the term.
Vance predicts the American people will elect Donald Trump as the next president in the 2024 election.
“assuming the American people make him the next president pres and I think that they will”
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Explanation
Confirmed: Donald Trump won the November 2024 presidential election.
Vance predicts that, in a Trump administration, Congress will cooperate enough in the first couple of years to largely secure the budgetary and appropriations items the administration wants.
“I I do think that the Congress is willing to work with us at least you know the first couple of years of an Administration you can largely get the budgetary and Appropriations things that you need”
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Explanation
With unified Republican control of Congress in 2025, the administration secured its major budgetary and appropriations priorities, including the reconciliation-passed 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act.'
A Trump-Vance administration's deportation effort will begin by removing roughly one million "criminal migrants" (those who committed violent crimes) from the country.
“you start out with the million people who are what we call criminal migrants people who have committed violent crimes in some form or another get them out of our country”
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Explanation
ICE deportations, including of individuals with criminal records, ramped up substantially in 2025-2026, but no independently verified figure confirms the specific claim of one million criminal-migrant removals as the administration's starting point.
Vance predicts the flow of millions of migrants crossing the southern border each year will stop once Donald Trump becomes president.
“you've got to stop the millions of people flowing across the southern border every single year it happened because of KLA Harris's policies it's going to stop when Donald Trump is President”
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Explanation
Illegal border crossings dropped dramatically to historic lows under the Trump administration in 2025, consistent with the prediction.
Vance predicts that massively reducing regulatory burden in transportation, energy, and home construction could add roughly 150 to 300 basis points of additional U.S. GDP growth.
“I don't know how easy it is to get another 300 bips of growth but I think you can get a lot more growth whether it's 300 or 150 just by massively reducing the amount of regulatory burden in the real economy”
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Explanation
US GDP growth has not gained the predicted additional 150-300 basis points from deregulation; growth has remained in the roughly 2-4% range through 2025-2026 rather than showing that scale of structural acceleration.