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Paul Buchheit

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Small sample size (1 prediction): treat this accuracy figure as anecdotal, not statistically meaningful.

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Winning the AI Race Part 1: Michael Kratsios, Kelly Loeffler, Chris Power, Shyam Sankar, Paul Buchheit, Jake Loosararian Too Early Wed, 23 Jul 2025 20:09:00 +0000 · 01:06:12

Within 20 years of this interview (by approximately 2045), AI models will be able to predict how a drug affects the human body without physical testing, and will be more predictive than today's clinical trials.

“in 20 years we'll be able to know how a drug affects the body without ever actually testing it. And my prediction is actually our our AI models will be more predictive than today's clinical trials.” View on YouTube
Explanation

This is an explicit 20-year prediction (to approximately 2045) made in 2025. AI drug-discovery/prediction tools are advancing but nowhere near replacing clinical trials as of 2026, and the timeframe has not elapsed, so this cannot be evaluated yet.